Probabilitas arah

1%
Bullish

Didukung ekspektasi pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed pada pertemuan 17 Sep (bahkan sebagian spekulasi 50 bps), dolar AS melemah, dan yield turun; semua ini historisnya positif untuk emas. Level psikologis $3.400 jadi fokus buyer.

1%
Sideways

Pasar berpotensi konsolidasi di kisaran $3.35k–$3.39k sambil menunggu data AS malam ini (PPI, klaim pengangguran, retail sales) untuk konfirmasi arah berikutnya.

1%
Bearish

Risiko koreksi jika data inflasi produsen/penjualan ritel AS keluar lebih panas, memantulkan DXY & yield. Ekspektasi pemotongan agresif bisa “dipangkas” pasar (contoh pandangan kontra di Treasuries).

  • Spot emas terakhir bergerak sekitar $3.36k–$3.37k, mendekati rekor dan menguat 0.3–0.4% hari ini.
  • Dolar AS berada di level terlemah beberapa pekan, mendukung emas. Yield 10Y AS cenderung turun.
  • Resistance: $3,375 (high intraday), $3,400 (psikologis/teknikal kunci). Break & hold di atas $3,400 membuka ruang momentum lanjutan.
  • Support: $3,356 (low intraday), lalu zona $3,34k. Kehilangan area ini berisiko perluasan koreksi.
  • 19:30 — US PPI (Jul); juga Initial Jobless Claims & (potensi) Retail Sales.
  • Skenario pro-bullish: PPI lemah / klaim lebih tinggi → dorong peluang rate cut → USD & yield turun → emas naik.
  • Skenario risk-bearish: PPI kuat / retail sales solid → kurangi pricing pemangkasan agresif → USD & yield naik → emas terkoreksi.
  • Bias dasar: Bullish ringan menuju $3,390–$3,405 jika data tidak terlalu panas.
  • Range alternatif: Konsolidasi $3,350–$3,390 jika data campuran; tarik-mundur ke $3,34k jika data memanas & dolar/yield memantul.
  • Catatan: Ini bukan nasihat investasi. Tetap disiplin dengan manajemen risiko, terutama sekitar rilis data 19:30 WIB.
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